Winter is Coming

"Governments go broke slowly at first, then all at once." - Earnest Hemingway

I'm a lucky man. I have a wife who loves me, my health, a job I enjoy that pays the bills, and better friends than I could have ever imagined as a young man.

I'm blessed, but I can't stop thinking, as I speed towards 40 and the second and final half of my life of the troubles that await those who come behind me.

The Baby Boomers, and to a much lesser extent Gen X, have left the Millennial Generation, and those behind them a pretty rotten balance sheet. $18 trillion in federal debt, $4 trillion in debt at the Federal Reserve, +/-$100 trillion in unfunded liabilities in the form of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The numbers are even more frightening when you look at the promises made to retirees by the States, Counties, and Cities that are several trillion dollars more in monies that simply can't be paid. http://www.usdebtclock.org/

I was lucky enough to have lived during the time of leveraged prosperity. Though I can say that I have voted against every single tax hike since my mid-twenties, that's not going to provide the lifestyle that these retirees are going to demand in the next 15-25 years. I fear it's going to get ugly, especially after looking at Greece and realizing we're going to make them look Switzerland by comparison.

This realization of unsustainable debt is a big reason I've headed down the homesteading path. My family and I are striving to live sustainably. Not in the Hipster/Hippie way that's come to define the word, but in the sense of feeding ourselves healthy food, not being in debt, and not oppressing others by voting to allow any additional taxes (tax is just another word for taking someone else's earnings/property at the barrel of a loaded gun).

There will be no voting our way out of this, there aren't enough people who care more about their children or grandchildren to make hard decisions. Instead we'll go the way of Greece, simply on a more violent, more austerity (rhymes much with misery) dominated path.

I don't see a Mad Max future. Americans, outside of DC and major metropolitan areas at least, are still decent people at their core. I think we'll see more multigenerational family living arrangements, which isn't a bad thing, as Granma/Grandpa looking after the children isn't a bad thing.

Without the money flowing from Uncle Sugar to local Police Departments and Sheriff's Offices the availability of locking up/ticketing everyone is going to go down, though it's going to be interesting to see how retired law enforcement officers are going to react when they realize there is no pension like they've been promised. I think we'll see more and more private sector law enforcement as time goes by, as the public money dries up.

Technology really is the wild card in all of this. Solar power gets cheaper everyday, we're ten years away from it being on par with utility companies prices at which point the whole country may start to look at the way Texas has deregulated it's power grid.

Robotics will continue to affect manufacturing, which may very well push manufacturing back to the states, as you don't have to pay a robot any more in South Carolina than you do in China. Then there's 3-D printing which very soon will allow manufacturers to outsource parts making to anyone with a 3-D machine. Imagine any part on any machine ever made available in the most remote small towns in America on a machine that costs $25,000. Amazon couldn't compete with a business model where you order the part from your neighborhood Maker Shop in the morning and it is ready for pick up or delivery next day if not just a few hours later.

Ride Sharing, imagine Uber for a set price per year for unlimited rides to and from wherever you want to go. Willing to ride in a small van with random strangers? Super cheap. Want to make it just folks who share common interests, or income levels, that's a step up in price. Want to ride alone with no one to bother you, just a few dollars more. As someone who drives 30,000 miles a year my vehicles still sit idle 90% of the time, I could buy a new vehicle every couple of years if there was software that made ride sharing easy, safe, and worth my time financially.

Winter Is Coming my friends, but as we always have, we'll find a way to survive it and thrive.